The Number Of People Facing Extreme Heat Set To Double By 2050, Study Finds
The number of people around the world living with extreme heat is set to double by 2050, according to a new analysis.
A study by researchers at the University of Oxford warns half the world’s population will be living with extreme heat by that date if average global temperatures rise over the next 25 years by 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The report results, first published in Nature Sustainability, claim the Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil will seeing the most significant increases in dangerously hot temperatures.
And it predicts the largest affected populations will be in India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines.
It follows a World Meteorological Organisation warning that the last three years are now officially the warmest on record.
The study also says the projected increase in extreme heat will also lead to a significant rise in energy demand for cooling systems and corresponding emissions.
It also predicts demand for heating in countries like Canada and Switzerland will decrease, as temperatures continue to rise.
The study finds warming to 2 degrees Celsius would lead to a doubling of uncomfortably hot days in Austria and Canada, and a 150% increase in the U.K.
It adds given much of the built environment and infrastructure in these countries are predominantly designed for cold conditions, even a moderate increase in temperature could have disproportionately severe impacts.
Dr. Radhika Khosla, associate professor and leader of the Oxford Martin Future of Cooling Programme, said the report’s findings should be a “wake-up call” in a statement.
Kiff Gallagher, executive director of the Global Heat Reduction Initiative (GHR) at SCS Global Services said the new report reinforces what communities already feel, in an email.
Gallagher added if we want to keep people safe, then we need to design and manage cities for heat, and not just for carbon.
He said reflective roofs and light-colored pavements can reduce neighborhood temperatures by several degrees, often within a single season.
“Because extreme heat is concentrated in cities, everyday planning choices can reduce temperatures faster than almost any other climate action, yet none of these benefits show up in the carbon dioxide 100‑year metric,” added Gallagher.
"A more comprehensive and relevant approach to climate accounting must include the near‑term impacts of super pollutants like methane, HFCs, and black carbon, as well as non‑emissions heat drivers such as surface reflectivity.”
A separate study by researchers at the University of Southampton has also warned wealth and age create a hidden divide in people’s ability to withstand heatwaves.
The study found common measures to protect people living in cities, such as issuing alerts or planting trees to increase shade, often fail to help the most vulnerable.
The researchers used anonymised phone records to see whether people stayed home during extreme heat or were forced to travel for work or essentials.
They found the most vulnerable groups least likely to escape the heat were elderly people, those living in low-income areas, and outdoor or agricultural workers.
The study, published in the Sustainable Cities and Society journal , was led by University of Southampton research group WorldPop and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) in China.
Lead author Dr Haiyan Liu said the results show that the most vulnerable are often forced into more movement, not less, during the most dangerous compound heatwaves, in a statement.
In November, a global coalition of more than 30 cities pledged to tackle the issue of extreme heat, which is rapidly becoming one of key impacts caused by climate change.
The Cool Cities Accelerator initiative will bring together 33 founding cities, including Austin, Buenos Aires, and Paris, to help protect residents, safeguard economies, and redesign cities for a hotter future.
The program has been established by the C40 Cities group, with support from The Rockefeller Foundation and other organizations.
Elizabeth Yee, executive vice president of programs at the Rockefeller Foundation, said while cities sit at the epicenter of the extreme heat threat, they are also where solutions can scale fastest, in a statement.
Yee added confronting the urban heat crisis requires stronger health systems, smarter infrastructure, and proactive public health interventions that protect people before emergencies strike.
“Through initiatives like the Cool Cities Accelerator launched at COP30 in Brazil, we are supporting cities with a science-based, practical framework to take immediate life-saving action, while making long-term investments that reduce risk for future generations,” said Yee.
“Acting now will save lives and build safer, more resilient cities for the future.”